Online radio's other name might as well be "irrational exuberance." It's been 10 years since the day I first heard the herky-jerky music streaming on RealNetworks's (RNWK) music player. A few days later, if my memory serves me right, there was a flurry of articles gushing about the potential of streaming audio and video. Ten years later, in the words of Yankee catcher Yogi Berra, it's like déjà vu all over again.
Not a day passes when I don't come across an announcement of yet another online radio service. And I see the excitement in the media. Despite the fact that only a couple of companies -- Apple (AAPL) and Napster -- have had success in the online music game, everyone thinks there's money to be made selling online tunes.
In recent weeks, companies like Clear Channel and Infinity Broadcasting -- the AM and FM guys -- have announced they intend to stream their terrestrial radio broadcasts on the Web. Satellite radio companies like Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) are trying to extract a few additional bucks from subscribers who want to hear their favorite niche channels online.
As people switch to broadband Internet connections, they tend to spend more time online. They also tend to listen to more music on the Web. Logically, that makes a lot of sense, but why hasn't anyone stopped and asked how much music consumers want? Will they spend another, say, $5 a month on online radio music? More important, do we really need online radio?
In the past decade, most online radio efforts have come to naught. Why? Because we really don't have much time for radio, given all the other entertainment and information choices. The only time we have to listen to the radio is when we're stuck behind the wheel. There, satellite radio does a pretty good job of offering wide selections of music and talk, something the homogenized broadcast radio stations have failed to do.
At work, where the corporate network managers control the bandwidth with the ferocity of a lioness watching over her cubs, it is unlikely to ever be offered. Online radio hasn't entered the mainstream consciousness, and it is shaping up as a technology trend whose time has come and gone without anyone even noticing it.
If you look at the growing popularity of podcasting -- where consumers download MP3 versions of sometimes arcane radio shows broadcast by enthusiasts and listen to them later on their MP3 players -- the consumer intentions are pretty obvious. It's only a matter of time before we'll create our own drive-time radio lineups and hook our iPods into our cars' music systems.
The Internet enables consumers to be highly selective. In other words, digital music is the first big market that allows mass customization. With an iPod/iTunes or Creative Zen/Napster combination, I can create my own radio stations, sans ads. It doesn't even cost much. Companies like Napster will rent you as much music as you want for $15 a month.
Why listen to someone's generic playlist when you can create your own? (Looking for help finding new music? Free online music recommendation engines like UpTo11.net can find tunes you might like.)
Do you really need online radio? I didn't think so.
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